Moving from Oregon to Arizona: The Real Numbers
ClozeEZ, the for-sale-by-owner site, lays out the real numbers on moving from Oregon to Arizona. The Oregon-to-Arizona corridor is real but its direction is genuinely unsettled: IRS tax-return data for 2022-2023 shows 6,453 people moving to Arizona against 4,866 returning, while Census ACS 2024 shows the opposite, with more people moving Arizona to Oregon. What is not ambiguous is the tax structure, because the two states are near mirror images: Oregon has no sales tax and one of the nation's highest income taxes, while Arizona has the lowest flat income tax in the country and a high sales tax.
Oregon vs. Arizona at a glance
| Oregon | Arizona | |
|---|---|---|
| Moved to Arizona | ~4,000-6,500/yr (IRS 2022-23); direction disputed | Oregon ranks 19th among origin states |
| Median home price | $502,156 state / $549,241 Portland metro | $421,381 state / $445,924 Phoenix metro |
| Income tax | 4.75%-9.90%, top bracket starts at $125,000 | 2.5% flat |
| Portland local income tax | Up to 3% more (county + Metro) | None anywhere in Arizona |
| Combined sales tax | None | 8.52%, Oregon wins here |
Run the tax swap, and it is not close at Portland incomes
Oregon's top 9.90% rate starts at just $125,000 for a single filer, and the statute expressly says that threshold is never inflation-adjusted. Portland-area residents stack local taxes on top: Multnomah County's Preschool for All tax adds 1.5% above $125,000 and another 1.5% above $250,000, and the Metro Supportive Housing Services tax adds 1% above $128,000. Combined top marginal rate for a Multnomah County resident is about 13.9%, rising in 2027.
Against Arizona's flat 2.5%, a single filer with $150,000 of taxable income saves roughly $9,938 a year. The honest way to present this is a break-even: you would need to spend about $117,000 a year on sales-taxable goods in Arizona before the 8.52% sales tax erased that saving. Since groceries are exempt from Arizona's state transaction privilege tax, and rent, mortgage payments, and most services are not taxable, that threshold is effectively unreachable.
The sunshine contrast is the most extreme pair on this list
Portland records 68 clear days and 222 cloudy days a year, with 157 days of measurable precipitation and 36.9 inches of rain. Phoenix records 211 clear days, 70 cloudy days, 33 wet days, and 7.2 inches. Portland ranks as the 19th cloudiest of 262 NOAA stations nationally; Phoenix is the 2nd sunniest. No other common origin-destination pair combines a top-20 cloudiest metro with a top-2 sunniest one.
Where Arizona does not win
Two things to be straight about. Oregon has no sales tax at all, so every taxable purchase in Arizona costs roughly 8.5% more at the register, a real, permanent cost. And the migration data does not support an exodus claim: Census ACS 2024 actually shows more people moving from Arizona to Oregon than the reverse, so the net flow is not statistically distinguishable from zero.
Oregon to Arizona: frequently asked questions
How much income tax would I save moving from Portland to Arizona?
At $150,000 of taxable income for a single filer, roughly $9,938 a year: Portland's combined state, county, and Metro taxes run about $13,689 against Arizona's $3,750. At $250,000 the gap widens to about $19,838. These are illustrative calculations on taxable income; consult a tax professional for your situation.
Does Arizona's sales tax cancel out the income tax savings?
Not at Portland income levels. A single filer with $150,000 of taxable income would need to spend roughly $117,000 a year on sales-taxable goods before Arizona's 8.52% rate erased the income tax saving. Groceries are exempt from Arizona's state tax, and rent, mortgage payments, and most services are not taxable at all.
Are more people moving from Oregon to Arizona or the other way?
The sources disagree. IRS tax-return data for 2022-2023 shows about 6,453 moving to Arizona against 4,866 returning; Census ACS 2024 shows the opposite direction. The honest answer is that the net flow is not statistically clear, though Phoenix does rank as the top out-of-state destination in Redfin's search data for Portland homebuyers.
How much sunnier is Phoenix than Portland?
Portland averages 68 clear days and 157 days with measurable rain a year; Phoenix averages 211 clear days and 33 wet days. Portland is the 19th cloudiest and Phoenix the 2nd sunniest among 262 NOAA reporting stations.